The attacks on Iran have begun

There are unconfirmed rumors that the newly-selected Supreme Leader may already be dead or at least incapacitated. He reportedly was in the compound that was destroyed on day1 of the war, and has not been seen even on video since he was named to the post. He certainly does not want to appear publicly, as the Israelis seem to be quite good at assassination, but a video posting to social media would be a morale booster to the IRGC and any other allies he has in the country.
 
When I want to watch YouTube videos on here, I have to sign in to YouTube. When I try to open Microsoft Edge in the last few minutes, I get this....


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What is going on?
 
Turkey has again come under attack from Iran. Turkey has summoned the Iranian ambassador to the President's office. This might just be a formal protest, it could be an expulsion as Australia has now ordered, or, since Turkey is a NATO member, it could be the preliminary to calling an Article 4 meeting of NATO. Article 4 meetings are to determine whether an Article % should be declared, and that would bring all of NATO into the fight against Iran. We'll see. I now appears that Trump is now considering adding Turkey to Saudi Arabia and the dominant power(s) controlling the Middle East along with Israel and the UAE. The world certainly seems to be changing.

The IRGC leadership in Iran seems to now be without even a place to meet. They seem to be following the Hamas model of continuing to move and using hospitals, schools and civilian apartment buildings as shields from attack.
 
Apparently the Iran war has moved to phase three. Helios, the American laser system has reportedly entered the war and Israel has introduced the "Iron Beam", which is said to be a laser but may be some type of energy beam different from the laser, such as a maser or an infrared beam system. Both systems have been shown in action now, and Israel says it now costs about $3 to shoot down a missile or drone.

Israeli drones are now patrolling the streets of Tehran and attacking the checkpoints set up by the IRGC to keep people off the streets and preventing demonstrations from beginning. Reports say that each attack is being approved by a person, but I have no idea if that is true. Rumors are that Israel make capture Kharg Island, the heart of the Iranian oil system using ground troops of some kind. Again, I have no idea if that is true.
 
The terrorism in the U.S. has begun. There was an attack on a synagogue in Michigan and a shooting at Old Dominion University in Virginia. Both attackers were know to be terror suspects, and the Virginia man had been arrested for terrorist support and was released in 2024. Nothing was done and now that Homeland Security is not funded, it is difficult to monitor these people. Both attackers are now believed to be dead.
 
One large issue now is getting out safely through the Strait of Hormuz. There was talk of "boots on the ground" around the shoreline, but it would not be effective. The shoreline covers too many linear miles, and the drones/rockets are being fired from too great a distance...the bad actors are [generally] not in the immediate vicinity. Our Navy has been shrunk over the decades and it seems that not only are they stretched too thin to provide escorts, the diversity of ships (size and function) is also lacking.

Sanctions were temporarily lifted off of Russia so they could sell their oil, trying to keep global prices down. As with everything Trump, naysayers were immediately saying "Russia is the winner in all this," but I wait to see what happens when the dust settles (if, in fact, we'll ever know on this one.) I believe Trump had a 1 hour phone conversation with Putin around the time. One person observed that lifting the sanctions was necessary to repress oil prices, and perhaps it makes China suspicious that their "good friend" has split loyalties. Who knows.

Iranian citizens have yet to take action in the streets to overthrown what remains of the government, in part because the US has told them to hunker down, because we still got bombs left and we're gonna use them. Ground action might be required to take out the hard-core loyalists, concurrently making it less dangerous for the citizens as well as the ranks of military and police who so dearly want to defect and join the revolt.

I've seen videos of lots of Iranians waving and displaying lots of Israeli flags. Apparently there is a very long positive history between the two peoples (well predating the splitting of Persia) with Israel providing military assistance against enemies without and within. Lots of love there, if one believes what one sees & reads. (My knowledge of international history is weak.)
 
John Brunner said:
One large issue now is getting out safely through the Strait of Hormuz. There was talk of "boots on the ground" around the shoreline, but it would not be effective. The shoreline covers too many linear miles, and the drones/rockets are being fired from too great a distance...the bad actors are [generally] not in the immediate vicinity. Our Navy has been shrunk over the decades and it seems that not only are they stretched too thin to provide escorts, the diversity of ships (size and function) is also lacking.

Sanctions were temporarily lifted off of Russia so they could sell their oil, trying to keep global prices down. As with everything Trump, naysayers were immediately saying "Russia is the winner in all this," but I wait to see what happens when the dust settles (if, in fact, we'll ever know on this one.) I believe Trump had a 1 hour phone conversation with Putin around the time. One person observed that lifting the sanctions was necessary to repress oil prices, and perhaps it makes China suspicious that their "good friend" has split loyalties. Who knows.

Iranian citizens have yet to take action in the streets to overthrown what remains of the government, in part because the US has told them to hunker down, because we still got bombs left and we're gonna use them. Ground action might be required to take out the hard-core loyalists, concurrently making it less dangerous for the citizens as well as the ranks of military and police who so dearly want to defect and join the revolt.

I've seen videos of lots of Iranians waving and displaying lots of Israeli flags. Apparently there is a very long positive history between the two peoples (well predating the splitting of Persia) with Israel providing military assistance against enemies without and within. Lots of love there, if one believes what one sees & reads. (My knowledge of international history is weak.)
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I was just reading about Kharg Island. It wouldn't be about the Strait so much as completely cutting off Iran's oil exports. Apparently they are still selling some oil and the Allies want to cut that off. A Chinese representative has now called for the Strait to remain open, as they are the ones being most impacted by the Strait's effective closure. If you have seen the miles-long gas lines in China, you will see the impact. China has now lost Venezuela and much of the Middle East oil, so they are suffering. I suspect, but do not know, that they may be getting some of Alaska's oil since I have been told that a bit of our oil is going to China for refining since the environmentalists in Washington state don't want it there where it has traditionally been refined.
 
Don Alaska said:
The terrorism in the U.S. has begun. There was an attack on a synagogue in Michigan and a shooting at Old Dominion University in Virginia. Both attackers were know to be terror suspects, and the Virginia man had been arrested for terrorist support and was released in 2024. Nothing was done and now that Homeland Security is not funded, it is difficult to monitor these people. Both attackers are now believed to be dead.
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Gotta love Democrats bringing these people into our borders, attacking Federal immigration enforcement trying to get rid of them, then refusing to fund DHS to protect us from them. One might think this is intentional...and there's no way to blame Trump or Republicans (except for their sins of omission) for any of it, much less all of it.

As an aside, Fetterman continues to be more sane that the rest of his party members and most Republicans on this and other issues. Talk about an unexpected voice in the wilderness. The gauntlet of news outlet interviews meant to discredit him gloriously backfire. He is very well informed.
 
Don Alaska said:
I was just reading about Kharg Island. It wouldn't be about the Strait so much as completely cutting off Iran's oil exports. Apparently they are still selling some oil and the Allies want to cut that off. A Chinese representative has now called for the Strait to remain open, as they are the ones being most impacted by the Strait's effective closure. If you have seen the miles-long gas lines in China, you will see the impact. China has now lost Venezuela and much of the Middle East oil, so they are suffering. I suspect, but do not know, that they may be getting some of Alaska's oil since I have been told that a bit of our oil is going to China for refining since the environmentalists in Washington state don't want it there where it has traditionally been refined.
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China is unstable right now. Leadership (military and civilian) is almost in the same state of fear as their North Korean counterparts, and is marginally more competent. The young folk are tired of the repression, and they see everyone else getting freedom while they have none. This war harms China on so many fronts. The article is behind a paywall, and I can't find an archive copy. Here are bullet points:

-Military leaders are being talks to privately to discuss their position on the war
-High-ranking officials are being told to learn from the collapse of the USSR
-There has been a purge of high military officials
-A controlled military is the foundation of internal power
-The loss of Ali Khamenei is significant to China
-They grossly underestimated our ability to get the job done

-There's a real estate crisis (not that you would want to risk your life in Chinese architecture)
-Official youth unemployment rate of 17%...ignores rural regions and is likely understated
-A backlog of unpaid wages
-Bejing is bleeding residents/migrant rural workers who are looking elsewhere for work
-Social media censorship/suspended accounts over the war, internal leadership change, economics
-Birth rates are a continuous issue

The war and tariffs have hurt China economically, but the loss of Khamenei represents a much more significant political loss.
 
Marie Miller said:
Do you want head and gut counts. This is a bit closer to folks a bit closer to the no fun circus.
Looks like Holly Mount in Jerusalem may have gotten hit.
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So you're talking war carnage. Yeh, there's really nothing those of us who live in relative safety can say. It's been a period way of life for others.
 
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