Social Security Cola

Discussion in 'Money & Finances' started by Sheldon Scott, Oct 18, 2016.

  1. Tim Burr

    Tim Burr Well-Known Member
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    Just reporting what I read from The annual trustee reports on Social Security and Medicare; they stated 2.2
    Old enough to know people can do anything they want with numbers.:)
    Hoping for the best.
     
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  2. Chrissy Cross

    Chrissy Cross Veteran Member
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    That will mean about $30 for me I think...they'll probably raise Medicare but as long as I'm staying where I am or even a little extra, it's all fine by me.

    Just don't cut anything. :)
     
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  3. Tim Burr

    Tim Burr Well-Known Member
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    My Social Security, Military retirement and VA disability are all tied to the same 'index', so I get whatever they decide on for cola.
    I am with you on it can stay the same, just don't take anymore from me...:eek:
     
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  4. Harry Havens

    Harry Havens Well-Known Member
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    That would have been this projection... from pg 116... https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2017/tr2017.pdf

    On page 117, it also mentions 1.5% on a very similar looking table. When estimating something over such a long period of time, a range of likely assumptions must be considered, which is also stated several times.

    https://www.ssa.gov/cola/

    More specifically... The CPI-W average of July, August and September is compared to the previous year.

    None of which is to dispute the potential for 2.2%, but it would require a serious bout of inflation with 2/13 of the quarter already passed. If gasoline were to jump roughly 60¢ a gallon starting tomorrow and holding on through September, it might achieve 2.2% increase on the Quarter's average over last year.
     
    #29
  5. Harry Havens

    Harry Havens Well-Known Member
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    Whatever your current S.S. payment being received, will stay the same. There is a no harm clause to Medicare increases eroding current S.S.

    I suspect that Medicare will not gobble up all the S.S. increase for 2018. We won't know for sure until November.
     
    #30
  6. Harry Havens

    Harry Havens Well-Known Member
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    Medicare Drug Premiums Expected to Dip in 2018
    Some good news... maybe. As for Part B, I have been reading those currently paying $110 ~ $134 could see premiums in the $121 range for 2018. This is due to bracket changes for the higher income groups. With an early estimate of 1.5% SS cola, there might actually be some gains. However, nothing is official until the fat lady sings or a fat official or somebody else.
     
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  7. Harry Havens

    Harry Havens Well-Known Member
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    The inflation report for July, 2017 has been released.
    However, C.O.L.A is based on CPI-W.
    Note that rounding is DOWN to the nearest tenth of a percent.

    The annual rate of inflation for CPI-W is...
    IF, last year's 3rd quarter trend holds true this 3rd quarter, the August report will show the CPI-W shallowing to 1.5% over previous year, before jumping back up to 1.6% in September.

    Barring some inflationary event... 1.6% seems highly likely, imo. As for Medicare, I have read projections of $121~$125. For those enrolling in Medicare last year, this means a decrease in deductions as well as an increase in S.S.
     
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  8. Harry Havens

    Harry Havens Well-Known Member
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    The August CPI report was issued this morning.
    That 0.4% is 4.8% annualized, but not necessarily an indicator of inflation going forward, as it is still 1.9% above last year. Generally the times the monthly report has shown 0.4% or above over the past 48 months, can be counted on one hand.
    upload_2017-9-14_9-23-32.png
    As the graph indicates, nearly each case had following months with downward pressure. The September release will not likely follow that trend and could be anticipated to rise above the August numbers.

    Now to the Social Security, which is CPI-W..
    • 1.6%... is almost off the table, as it would require a drop in September numbers by -0.14% and THAT is out of the question, imo.
    • 1.7%... is also almost off the table, as the range would be -0.13% ~ +0.16%. Considering the gasoline component, not very likely either.
    • 1.8%... is most likely as the range would be +0.17%~+0.45%. Considering the August report was +0.40% a repeat is possible.
    • 1.9%... is stepping into some high numbers, with the range of 0.46%~0.74%. But, it cannot be ruled out, as only a moderate uptick in August increases would get to this level.
    • 2.0%... 0.75%~1.04%. This is getting into some big numbers, which we haven't seen in quite a while.
     
    #33
  9. Shirley Martin

    Shirley Martin Veteran Member
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    So, am I gonna be rich or what? :D
     
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  10. Harry Havens

    Harry Havens Well-Known Member
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    What.:p

    Just remember the raise based on CPI-W will not be keeping up with the headline inflation of CPI-U.:(
     
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  11. Shirley Martin

    Shirley Martin Veteran Member
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    Oh, well, I guess it's back to bread, baloney and beans. :D
     
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  12. Harry Havens

    Harry Havens Well-Known Member
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    You might be alright with that combo, as beans and baloney are up, but supposedly bread is down enough to offset. :cool:
     
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  13. Harry Havens

    Harry Havens Well-Known Member
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    Getting close to beating a dead horse, but some follow-up from yesterday's nonsense.

    1.9% seems much more likely, with 2.0% a decent possibility. Reviewing the data, seems to indicate the housing component nor repeating the August rise, as it was mostly due to a recovery in travel costs. Those costs fell quite a bit in July and recovered a corresponding % in August. It's hard to consider the housing component as other than an anomaly at this point. That would point to a fall back in September numbers, if not for gasoline.
    upload_2017-9-15_8-54-46.png

    Gasoline seems to be holding on to its jump following Harvey and would dwarf any fall back in housing. The 2018 C.O.L.A. will be settled on October 13th.
     
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  14. Harry Havens

    Harry Havens Well-Known Member
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    Tomorrow brings the release of the September CPI and with it, the 2018 C.O.L.A. A reading of the P.P.I indicates a 1.9%, however the consensus indicates 0.6%. Whether it is 1.9% or 2.0% is up to the September CPI-W being at, above or below the 240.880 reading.

    Either way, it will be received as welcome news after the past few years. HOWEVER, my post of CMS good news on August the 8th... has now practically washed away. It certainly is not official and will not be until mid November, but the $134 for last year's enrollees appears likely NOT to fall, which means everyone else's will likely rise, but not above the hold harmless provision. This is based on previous comments from CMS about hoping to reduce the $134 amount, compared to current discussion of holding the line at $134.

    We will know tomorrow about S.S., but will have to wait until next month to really see what it means... if anything.
     
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  15. Shirley Martin

    Shirley Martin Veteran Member
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    I hope we get enough to cover the increase in my supplemental policy. That is going from $181 to $191.
     
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  16. Harry Havens

    Harry Havens Well-Known Member
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    It's official at 2.0%.
    upload_2017-10-13_9-47-44.png
    If you currently receive $1,590 each month ($1,700SS - $110CMS), I would say you are likely to receive that additional $10 above what the anticipated new Medicare rate will be for the majority.

    The timeframe for my enthusiasm being dampened on CMS was about the same time that things looked like 1.8% increase and $134 CMS. With the COLA at 2.0%, more money can be projected into CMS and should (theoretically) drive it down a bit from $134.
     
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  17. Shirley Martin

    Shirley Martin Veteran Member
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    @Harry Havens , I understand not a word of what you wrote but I defend to the death your right to write it. :D I do understand that we will get a 2% raise in SS. Will we also get a corresponding increase in Medicare cost?
     
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  18. Harry Havens

    Harry Havens Well-Known Member
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    That I do not know. I had speculated that people paying the $109~$111+ would move up to around $121 and people that enrolled last year, would come down from $134. That was speculation, which is NOT fact.

    However... [SOURCE]
    Based on that information and speculating (not fact) on that information... last years enrollee's deduction will remain the same and the rest of us will rise from our current amount to that level... while not decreasing the amount on the monthly SS check (hold harmless clause).

    So in a nutshell... I still don't know for a fact how Medicare will impact it.
     
    #43
  19. Tim Burr

    Tim Burr Well-Known Member
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    Far as I can tell, the cola increase starts Dec. 1st.
    Since I already pay the max amount for part B of Medicare ( 134.00 ),
    my increase for SS, military retirement and VA comes to around 70.00 USD per month more.
    A lot better than last year...:)
     
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  20. Gloria Mitchell

    Gloria Mitchell Well-Known Member
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    The last raise i think amounted to $3, and Medicare went up $3... so forgive me for not dancing in the aisles on this one:rolleyes:
     
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  21. Harry Havens

    Harry Havens Well-Known Member
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    Indeed, when coupled with other income streams. It is kind of a mixed bag for S.S. recipients with Medicare Part B as well as Medicare Advantage, and when factoring in purchasing power... there is a marked decrease in purchasing power.
    The following chart is based on $134 standard deduction, which the CMS indicates will not raise, although there is still a slight chance of decrease. Also, it is compared to the 2017 rate structure. "Check" means the actual S.S. check, which is derived after Part B deductions.
    upload_2017-10-20_11-37-31.png
    $1,309 and above are not "hold harmless", as at that rate, full $134 is being paid. Below is still hold harmless. Purchasing power is based on 2% rate of inflation is calculated to reflect the loss of monthly purchasing power.
    The chart is my construction and is not to be considered "official" as the variable is the base rate.
     
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