It is always fascinating to watch the "spin" attached to economic news and releases. This from Reuters... U.S. economy grows at tepid 1.2 percent; business spending softens. No problem as 1.2% is tepid and business spending did soften. However, the 1.2% exceeded expectations. But then... Contrast that article with another Reuter's article from the same time of 1Q, 2016, 2nd estimate of 0.8%. The initial comment seems much the same, but the remainder of the articles appear different. First off the 1st Quarter numbers have been notoriously down the past 4 years... (all 2nd estimates) 1Q, 2014: -1.0%; 1Q, 2015: -0.7% and of course last year: 0.8%. What is the current blue chip consensus for the quarter we are currently in? 3.1%, which is way ahead of 2nd quarter 2016 final of 0.8%. (all percentages are annualized)
I found this poll fascinating. What makes it fascinating is how the question would have been answered, if the question were "If the U.S. increased its deficit, would its trade deficit widen?" That answer would have likely been a resounding yes and especially among the Chicago Booth School, which teaches fiscal deficits and trade deficits are intertwined. I put this under GDP, as our trade deficit erodes about 2.9% of real growth (3.5% nominal) from our GDP.