G D P And Press Coverage

Discussion in 'Politics & Government' started by Harry Havens, May 26, 2017.

  1. Harry Havens

    Harry Havens Well-Known Member
    Registered

    Joined:
    May 24, 2017
    Messages:
    337
    Likes Received:
    271
    It is always fascinating to watch the "spin" attached to economic news and releases.

    This from Reuters... U.S. economy grows at tepid 1.2 percent; business spending softens. No problem as 1.2% is tepid and business spending did soften. However, the 1.2% exceeded expectations. But then...
    Contrast that article with another Reuter's article from the same time of 1Q, 2016, 2nd estimate of 0.8%.

    The initial comment seems much the same, but the remainder of the articles appear different.

    First off the 1st Quarter numbers have been notoriously down the past 4 years... (all 2nd estimates) 1Q, 2014: -1.0%; 1Q, 2015: -0.7% and of course last year: 0.8%.

    What is the current blue chip consensus for the quarter we are currently in? 3.1%, which is way ahead of 2nd quarter 2016 final of 0.8%. (all percentages are annualized)
     
    #1
    Last edited: May 26, 2017
  2. Harry Havens

    Harry Havens Well-Known Member
    Registered

    Joined:
    May 24, 2017
    Messages:
    337
    Likes Received:
    271
    I found this poll fascinating. What makes it fascinating is how the question would have been answered, if the question were "If the U.S. increased its deficit, would its trade deficit widen?" That answer would have likely been a resounding yes and especially among the Chicago Booth School, which teaches fiscal deficits and trade deficits are intertwined.

    I put this under GDP, as our trade deficit erodes about 2.9% of real growth (3.5% nominal) from our GDP.
     
    #2

Share This Page