Energy Demand And Supply

Discussion in 'Energy & Fuel' started by Harry Havens, Jun 28, 2017.

  1. Harry Havens

    Harry Havens Active Member
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    The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released their May 2017 (PDF) report to the general public.

    It seems to be particularly optimistic about consumption growth in the 4th quarter of this year and even forecasts a level above the 100Mbpd day for part of 2018. Those levels would outstrip current supply estimates, which would lead to higher prices.

    Of course higher prices would accelerate supply, especially in U.S. Shale and likely OPEC nations wishing to address budget revenue issues. Likely to provide limited impact to the overall picture, imo.

    The other major factor is China. China has recently announced some deceleration of growth via reduction of refining capacity of nearly 200Kbpd. Then there is the 800lb. gorilla sometimes referred to as China's SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) which may now be larger than the U.S. SPR. No one outside of China's officialdom knows for sure its size, nor do we know how soon China will top out its SPR.

    It does seem likely China will use its SPR to increase political influence among OPEC members.

    The Weekly U.S. report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) starts to roll out at 10AM EDT.
     
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  2. Harry Havens

    Harry Havens Active Member
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    The EIA weekly report came out yesterday and here is the link... https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/

    Oddly the small drop in gasoline inventories is blamed for gasoline prices rising yesterday. Considering that those inventories did slip and refinery output slipped as well... that would seem reasonable. Yet demand slipped a bit more than supply as seen in the day's supply numbers which increased overall.

    The gasoline prices seem to be moving in lock step with Crude prices, as both have risen 5.6% over the past week. So the issue would be why are crude prices rising. One factor would be the almight dollar, but that can only account for 1.7% increase. The other 3.9% increase is hard to fathom unless too much weight is being given to drop in U.S. Crude Production of 100Kbpd since previous weekly report. Or possibly excessive enthusiasm regarding OPEC's latest "agreement", or even unease of Qatar.
     
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  3. Harry Havens

    Harry Havens Active Member
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  4. Harry Havens

    Harry Havens Active Member
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  5. Harry Havens

    Harry Havens Active Member
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    A chart derived from the EIA Weekly report...
    upload_2017-6-29_22-34-16.png
     
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  6. Harry Havens

    Harry Havens Active Member
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    An article on the Natural Gas glut in the U.S. This is the real reason that Coal is being used less in the U.S.
    In China and India NG is much more expensive and competitive with Coal. That may change in a few years as more LNG carriers are built.
     
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  7. Harry Havens

    Harry Havens Active Member
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    Ethanol and regulations has again cropped up in the news. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biofuels-idUSKBN19Q27M
    It does make for some strange bedfellows, with environmentalists and big oil on one side and the corn belt on the other. Even the auto industry leans towards the environmentalists and big oil. For the auto industry and big oil, it is about the so called blend wall.

    In any case it adds about 8¢ to the price of a gallon of gasoline for e10 due to the RINs price and the penalty price can be reflected in the difference between e10 and conventional.
     
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  8. Tim Burr

    Tim Burr Well-Known Member
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    Having worked in Ethanol production for 15 years,
    I try to follow the ins and outs of the fuel battle.

    Just wanted to throw out that the corn used in Ethanol
    production is what they call 'field corn'.
    It's not the sweet corn used for canned/frozen eating corn.

    Also, after the process is completed, the left over 'Distillers
    Grain' is high in protein and is used as a 'finish' feed for livestock.
    Nothing goes to waste.

    Just a FYI for those who might be wondering.
     
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  9. Harry Havens

    Harry Havens Active Member
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    The weekly EIA report... https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/
    My summary chart...
    upload_2017-7-6_16-50-30.png

    Nothing really to see, as demand is still weaker than last year. There is a nervousness across a lot of commodities and stocks, with its roots stemming from the Bond Market. That is a subject for a different place and time.
     
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  10. Harry Havens

    Harry Havens Active Member
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    Almost forgot I created this thread, so here is the latest chart (my creation), from this week's EIA report (their creation).
    upload_2017-7-26_18-12-57.png

    The total U.S. Crude (including SPR) and Petroleum products inventory has now below the 2 Billion barrel mark for the first time in 18 months. That is still about 200 Million barrels above what was once considered normal.
     
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