The murder rate in the U.S. has remained virtually unchanged for about 16 years, number murdered per 100,000 population. Note that it is the lowest it has been in 46 years. At it's worst, 1980, it was twice today's rate. Think about all the negative events over those years which might have influenced a trend upward and try to explain why it did not. I cannot. All I can say is that given the fact that U.S. population in 1970 was 205 million, 2010 310 million, and during that interval a very many things happened which might have caused an increase in homicides, it did not happen. One thing I must concede, after studying pretty deeply: those 3 or 4 States having nearly the currently lowest homicide rates, coincidentally have the most restrictive firearms laws: California, Colorado, and Connecticut. The lowest homicide rate was seen to be in Maine. Offhand, I would attribute population density, persons per square mile, as contributory in large part to homicide rates: ya can't kill a neighbor if ya ain't got one! But, Connecticut with 743 persons per square mile, California with 246, and Colorado with far less, only 51, seem to break that credibility, unless Coloradans are less violent than others, certainly a hasty generalization. OTOH, Maine's pop. den. is 43, not much less than CO. What would really need to be done, and gleaning truthful stats might not now be easy, would be to look at homicides in those three states, CA, CO, and CT, BEFORE the firearms restrictions were enacted. Wanna bet they were higher? I'd go with that, based simply on the chart above, and nothing else. Frank
Maybe this link will help you. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/homicide_mortality/homicide.htm Connecticut is 11th, Colorado 18th and California at 23rd. One thing that was widely discussed, was the removal of lead for gasoline ( and elsewhere) and the impact of that removal... following a generation.
@Harry Havens Thank you! Very comprehensive presentation. The gasoline/lead angle is rather interesting, too. If exposure to lead prompts murderous attitudes, one should examine various other pollutants, especially heavy metals, as well as atomic fallout effects. For example, Cadmium, one of the bad ones, was once found as plating on virtually all threaded fasteners used by industry, as well as hobby, home, any users of screws and bolts. Untold billions of fasteners were used worldwide, as well as still being used, although use of Cadmium has been discontinued I think by law. One other of my concerns is the millions of pounds of rubber discarded along any nation's highways, as vehicular tires are worn away by pavements. Where must it all wind up? Perhaps much of it in the ocean, eventually? Rubber contains many potent materials, depending on the compounding. Frank
Here is the FBI data page for 2016, containing the Uniform Crime Report. It should be used with caution, as it does contain information based on location, gender and race. There is much more to the story than just race. Clearly men are the culprits 90% of homicides, with 78% of the victims being male. Through all racial groups the the victims of each racial group were killed by someone within their racial group, 80%~90% of the time. Of the 15,070 homicide victims in 2016, the category of other was 613, or 4.72 @100K; Brown was 2,367 at a 4.55@100k clip; White was 4,209 at a 1.85@100K clip; Black at 7,881 at a 21.24 @100K clip. Naturally, there is one rate that immediately leaps to the forefront, but the causation is not likely to be based on race, but factors that are more likely to be faced by said race. One such factor is the prevalence of lead in older communities, whether lead paint, lead piping or lead solder joints. Most houses built prior to 1978, likely has lead based paint under all those fresh coats. Lead solder, even for joining copper pipe, was prevalent through the mid 80s. Lead may not be the main culprit, but its impact on children during development is well documented. Poverty, lack of opportunity, etc. are also potential factors. The problem is, was and may forever be... any meaningful discussion of homicide prevention, routinely ends up being a dialogue about race and NOT the underlying issues that may well be the culprit. Be careful with any conclusions based from the FBI's UCR.