Cost Of Living Adjustments

Discussion in 'Money & Finances' started by Sheldon Scott, Oct 18, 2016.

  1. Babs Hunt

    Babs Hunt Supreme Member
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    Yes, @Harold Hayden I did mean 2017. And we both were on Medicare prior to 2017. So in simple language are you saying from now on any COLA increases will go straight to Medicare?
     
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  2. Harry Havens

    Harry Havens Veteran Member
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    That asks for a straight up and down answer. I cannot give such an answer. I can speculate that 2018 increases will likely go the same for you and I, as there is a significant disparity between you/I and those signing up later. Per my previous example, that individual is receiving $1,395 after Medicare, with $1,515 as being the Social Security benefit. However someone signing up for Medicare this year with the same S.S. benefit ($1,515) will only receive about $1,381.

    During all their calculations, the hold harm comes into play until that discrepancy is resolved. When that might happen? I don't know and don't consider it highly likely in 2018. Feel free to hope I am wrong. I would hope I am wrong as well, but it would likely take higher inflation than current... and I'm not particularly fond of that either.

    Good news is that person in our category, far outnumber the new enrollees, etc. It is conceivable that those with $134 being deducted could be less in 2018.
     
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  3. Babs Hunt

    Babs Hunt Supreme Member
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    It's really not a problem @Harold Hayden since the increases have become so small we don't really count on them or miss them. :)
     
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  4. Harry Havens

    Harry Havens Veteran Member
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  5. Chrissy Cross

    Chrissy Cross Supreme Member
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    Mine doesn't have my soc sec number on it but my deceased husband's.
     
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  6. Harry Havens

    Harry Havens Veteran Member
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    Tomorrow brings the release of the May, 2017 CPI data. Something I track diligently and compare to my own rate of inflation. Of course the data is based on averages and models which will not always represent specific individuals.

    For those interested in the data... https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm That link is currently for April Data, but will be replaced by May data at 8:30AM EDT on the June 14.

    For those of us on S.S., the number to watch is the CPI-W (For chrome users ctrl+f and then type CPI-W) Our annual increases are based on the average of July, August and September, compared to average of same period of previous year. So we aren't really into the definitive period. Last year's average was 235.064. So how the July, August and September average compares will be the raise, which won't be finalized until Friday the 13th of October.

    For reference the April number was 238.432.
     
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  7. Harry Havens

    Harry Havens Veteran Member
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    238.609, which would represent a 1.5% increase, if the average doesn't fall below that level.
     
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  8. Tim Burr

    Tim Burr Veteran Member
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    So, the word is there might be a 2.2% increase for Social Security for 2018.
    Would be nice.
    My other retirement payments are tied to this; hope it happens.

    Have to wait and see how much other services increase to gobble that up.
     
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  9. Lara Moss

    Lara Moss Supreme Member
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    I hope you're right @Tim Burr . We'll see.
     
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  10. Harry Havens

    Harry Havens Veteran Member
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    The June CPI report was released this morning. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm
     
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  11. Tim Burr

    Tim Burr Veteran Member
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    Just reporting what I read from The annual trustee reports on Social Security and Medicare; they stated 2.2
    Old enough to know people can do anything they want with numbers.:)
    Hoping for the best.
     
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  12. Chrissy Cross

    Chrissy Cross Supreme Member
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    That will mean about $30 for me I think...they'll probably raise Medicare but as long as I'm staying where I am or even a little extra, it's all fine by me.

    Just don't cut anything. :)
     
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  13. Tim Burr

    Tim Burr Veteran Member
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    My Social Security, Military retirement and VA disability are all tied to the same 'index', so I get whatever they decide on for cola.
    I am with you on it can stay the same, just don't take anymore from me...:eek:
     
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  14. Harry Havens

    Harry Havens Veteran Member
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    That would have been this projection... from pg 116... https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2017/tr2017.pdf

    On page 117, it also mentions 1.5% on a very similar looking table. When estimating something over such a long period of time, a range of likely assumptions must be considered, which is also stated several times.

    https://www.ssa.gov/cola/

    More specifically... The CPI-W average of July, August and September is compared to the previous year.

    None of which is to dispute the potential for 2.2%, but it would require a serious bout of inflation with 2/13 of the quarter already passed. If gasoline were to jump roughly 60ยข a gallon starting tomorrow and holding on through September, it might achieve 2.2% increase on the Quarter's average over last year.
     
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  15. Harry Havens

    Harry Havens Veteran Member
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    Whatever your current S.S. payment being received, will stay the same. There is a no harm clause to Medicare increases eroding current S.S.

    I suspect that Medicare will not gobble up all the S.S. increase for 2018. We won't know for sure until November.
     
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